Although some folks don’t care for such prognostication, I posted six predictions 365 days ago for 2009. Before I post a new set for 2010, I thought I would revisit this post and see how close I came to foretelling what might happen last year in the wine world:
The Year of Value – It didn’t take a rocket scientist to predict consumers would look for the best wine values in 2009. The final statistics will not be out for a few days but from what I’ve seen recently, wine sales actually increased in the U.S. and Canada in 2009 but wines above $35 a bottle were flat to slightly down over 2008. The entire market traded down in 2009; it will be interesting to see what happens as the economy improves.
Wineries Really Go Direct - One of the industry trends that I closely track is adoption of social media. As smaller wineries come to grips with the reality that distributors are no longer the best place to sell their wines, they will look to new ways to connect directly with customers. We saw a lot of activity in this area in 2009 with wineries big and small adopted social marketing in a big way. I fully expect to see a lot more activity this year as wineries of all sizes expand their direct-to-consumer sales efforts.
Alternative Packaging – I’ve noticed a large increase in the amount of alternative closures in the past year with a sharp rise in the amount of screwcaps but also quite a few plastic corks being used. But this was really not part of this prediction so I guess I have to call this one a fail. Or perhaps this prediction is just a bit ahead of the curve.
Wine 2.0 Will Produce A Star – Another miss as no one really emerged from the Wine 2.0 pack. But I still think we will see a winner here in the next 12 months as Cork’d gets serious, CellarTracker gets a much needed user interface update and Snooth continues to grow.
Wine Media Goes Digital – I have to say that I’m surprised there wasn’t at least one wine magazine making more than just evolutionary moves online. Both Wine Spectator and Wine Advocate improved their online offerings in the year but no one really did anything very dramatic. A pity as 2010 looks to be the year of the tablet (or at least, the eBook reader). Time was lost and it will show by the end of this year.
Americans Drink Less Wine At Lower Price Points – As I mentioned on my first prediction, wine sales appear to be up over 2008 but at lower prices. So I’ll count this one as half right.
So 2 1/2 out of 6 or about 42% right. I guess I’m improving over my earlier efforts but still not a very reliable predictor of the future. If I didn’t have 5 really good predictions already written up, I just might just give this up… no, probably not, as it’s still too much fun for me.
Happy New Year!
Photo by Charyn Pfeuffer
A couple years ago I made 8 bold predictions for 2007. I decided to sit last year out after only the most obvious of the eight actually came to pass (increasing direct to consumer wine sales). But some progress was made on the list in 2008 with Tyler Colman, a.k.a Dr. Vino truly “going pro” with the publication of not one, but 2 wine books. Not to mention the entire Gary Vaynerchuk story which played out in a big way since I made that prediction. Some of my other predictions also made some progress toward fulfillment so I’m going to add six more for 2009 today.
The Year of Value – This prediction is really not that much of a stretch since the world economic downturn has made it a lot more challenging for wine producers to sell higher priced wines. Anything above $25 a bottle will be a tough sell in this environment with a lot of competition for consumers in the $10-15 price category. Look for some producers to just lower their pricing while others, such as Cameron Hughes, Mark West and Castle Rock, will be perfectly positioned to gain market share. 2009 is the year of extreme value that might also spark more interest in wine auctions as consumers look to maximize their purchasing power.
Wineries Really Go Direct – More wineries are exploiting direct to consumer sales and I expect to see a lot more growth in this area particularly for higher priced brands. The economics of direct sales and shipping will be a major advantage for wineries who can create enough pull with consumers. With wine tourism down due to the recession, I see the winners being those who create this pull online via ecommerce and, increasingly, a social media presence.
Alternative Packaging – As wine lovers become more concerned about the carbon footprint of their favorite beverage, more will look for wine packaged in bag-in-box or TetraPaks. As I’ve blogged here in the past, I hope to see better quality wines in these packages particularly those wines intended for immediate consumption.
Wine 2.0 Will Produce A Star – I’ve written about the intersection of Web 2.0 and wine for some time now but there has not been a breakout success story yet. This year will produce at least one star who will finally validate this space. My money is on Snooth right now but this could change as the year progresses. Stay tuned for a lot more on this subject here soon.
Wine Media Goes Digital -The traditional glossy wine magazines such as Wine Spectator and Wine Enthusiast will be forced to rethink their print business model this year and go more digital. I still think there will be the same amount of wine publications produced but the ones that are left will have figured out how to make money from their online presence and not just by print advertising sales. Of all of these magazines, Wine Spectator is the best positioned to flip the switch, open up their subscription site and become supported by their online advertising inventory. But I don’t expect to see them do this because they will see too much short-term risk in their current, but doomed, business model. 2009 will be a great year for new entrants trying to figure out this territory like Mutineer.
Americans Drink Less Wine At Lower Price Points – This prediction is linked with my first one but I think it’s important to note that the wine market in the U.S. will not grow as it has in the past. Not only will consumers drink less wine they will trade down to lower priced selections. With the U.S. dollar increasing in value, this will make imports more attractive especially from the Old World where vineyard land is a long sunk cost.
So there you have it; six bold predictions for 2009. I’ll revisit these in June and again in December to see what really happened.
Which ones do you think are right, dead wrong or what did I miss?
Coming out of the technology world, I find it somewhat surprising that there are few in the wine trade who offer predictions of the trends at the beginning of the year. In tech it seems everyone with a column, podcast, blog or email address offers their views; some, like John C. Dvorak, have made their careers at this, but I digress. So I’ve thought long and hard about the eight trends that follow and how foolish I might appear this time next year. But, nothing ventured, nothing gained, etc.
Online Wine Communities Go Mainstream – The number and quality of wine blogs increased in 2006 to nearly 500 and pros like the Wine Spectator started blogging. Late in the year, Web 2.0 wine sites came online to both aggregate blogs but also to build communities to share tasting notes and cellar inventories. A few brave wineries also got into the act with blogs and podcasts but this area is still largely an opportunity for new entrants. I expect online wine communities to explode in 2007 with one or two leaders emerging in the Wine 2.0 space by year-end. Wineries not plugged into this new medium will be kicking themselves for not making their move in the first half of 2007.
The Old World Strikes Back - The over extracted, long hang-time New World reds with 15-16% alcohol will be overshadowed by more restrained and balanced Old World wines particularly from Spain and Italy where New World technology has met Old World terroir. While a few high-wire winemakers like Pax Mahle will continue to release fruit monsters to high scores, many more will fall by the wayside as consumers value food compatibility more than brawn. The wines of New York will also benefit from this trend.
Direct To Consumer Sales Soar – More wineries will sell wine directly to consumers via the internet and wine clubs than ever before this year as the effects of the Supreme Court decision and technology investments pay dividends. I expect Inertia Beverage to enable more wineries than anyone else but there will be more than one technology platform for wineries to adopt. There will also be some new entrants like WineQ who will carve out an online niche with enthusiasts.
There Will Be Another Stormhoek – A wine brand will harness the wine blogosphere and social media to become a breakout success like what Stormhoek has done in 2005 and 2006. They might also narrowly target Millennials in their efforts to become the choice of this new generation of wine consumers becoming the “Pepsi of wine.”
Pinots Come Back To Earth – Both Pinot Grigio and Pinot Noir have been the hottest varietals for the past couple years but I expect them to level out in popularity this year. The new hot wines will be made from Riesling and Tempranillo with Rosé still increasing in popularity from last year. But then again it could be Viognier and Mourvèdre 
South Africa Emerges – The wines of South Africa have been under the radar of many wine lovers, particularly in North America, but new approaches, such as what Stormhoek has pioneered, will catapult South African wines to center stage in 2007. I also expect Chile and Argentina to continue to grow their share of the market.
Flights Replace Wine By The Glass – One of my personal disappointments in dining out is the selection of wine by the glass. Since my wife doesn’t drink and the normal supply of half bottles is lacking in almost every restaurant, I commonly grab a couple glasses of whatever is available. The places I really like are those with an interesting and well chosen selection so I can try a couple new wines with my meal. The places I love are those who offer flights of 3 or 4 wines in smaller pours. I hope more restaurants follow this trend.
At Least One Wine Blogger ‘Goes Pro’ – One could already argue that some wine bloggers have made the move already with Alder speaking at Antonia Allegra’s Symposium for Professional Wine Writers this year and Lenn introducing his own wine club, but I think a wine blogger will be hired by the established wine press in 2007. My money is on the Wine Spectator to be the innovator who will bring on this blogger as a “guest” but they will remain blogging there long-term.
OK, so I’ve side-steped the global warming issue since I think gradual climate changes should be measured in several hundred year increments and to bring forward some of the trends from 2006 is kind of a cop-out (although Millennials will increasingly be a factor in the overall market).
I’m sure there are some other crystal balls in the wine blogosphere; comments are open for more… what do you think?
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