by Tim Elliott on January 2, 2010
Despite my fairly checkered past in making predictions for the coming year, I am back with another batch. I think 2010 will be a transformative year for the wine business and for wine blogging. The economy will show improvement by the summer which will reverse the “nuclear winter” we have seen for the sales of high-end wines over the past 18 months. But there will also be some surprises in 2010:
The Return of the Luxury Wine Segment – It’s been a tough year for wines above $35 a bottle. In fact, Mike Grgich recently commented he had never seen a more challenging year in his 50 in Napa Valley. But that will change as the economy gains strength and American consumers vote with their wallets. There will continue to be a trend toward value but those $60-80 Cabs will start to sell again.
Wineries Integrate Social Media Marketing – As I mentioned in my review of 2009 yesterday, social media was one of the big trends last year with wineries tweeting and connecting with customers on Facebook. This will be the norm by the end of 2010 with social marketing fully integrated into the go-to-market plans of wineries of all sizes. No longer will it be, “nice to do,” or something to get an edge on competitors. Social marketing will be a requirement for growth by the end of this year.
Wineries Will Go Mobile – This is the next frontier as mobile, local and social all converge on smartphones such as the iPhone. Apple’s forthcoming tablet will also change the way consumers use the web to learn about wine and also buy it. Early adopter wineries are already working on their mobile strategies; by year-end nearly everyone will be playing catch-up as this space heats up.
Wine Bloggers Will Discover Business Models – We have seen the rise of the “professional” wine blogger in the past couple of years and I expect more of us will discover how to turn our hobbies into cash. No, it will not be a full-time living for most, but it will be a significant enough incentive to create content on a regular basis. Some will cry foul as monetization can lead to conflicts of interest but there will be several bloggers who will figure this out.
A Major Wine Print Publications Will Fold – OK, so this is my outrageous prediction for the year. And I don’t think this casualty will be the Wine Spectator, Wine Enthusiast or newsletters like the Wine Advocate. But the times are changing and I don’t see a great future for print wine magazines particularly after new technologies that fundamentally redefine what a magazine is hit the market early this year (e.g. Apple iSlate or whatever this will be called). I hope to see some true innovation in online wine coverage, too.
So that’s all I’ve got this year. Let me know what you think in the comments. I wish everyone a very happy and prosperous 2010 (and that’s, “twenty-ten”).
by Tim Elliott on January 1, 2010
I’m not sure where to start with this wine since my review of the previous vintage became the subject for the first wine blogger meltdown ever last year. I even thought of not posting a review due to this experience but my curiosity got the better of me and I had to see what the wine would be like on it’s second vintage.
Would I like it? Is it worth $75 a bottle in these recessionary times?
One of my treats for the holidays is a roast beef dinner which usually happens on Christmas Day. This past year, the roast was moved to New Year’s eve and the wine I selected to pair with this menu was not the usual Bordeaux or Napa Cab but the sample of Rockaway Cabernet received some time ago from Rodney Strong Vineyards. If you read my review of the 2005 release, there is a run down of the vineyard blocks involved and production methods used. Approximately the same process was used for the 2006 wine with most of the final blend being Cabernet Sauvignon and only slightly spiced by a dollop or two of Malbec and Petit Verdot. The result is one of the most pure single vineyard expressions of Cabernet Sauvignon I’ve ever tasted from California ensuring Rockaway’s position among the very best wines made from this grape in the state.
Tasting Notes:
Rodney Strong Vineyards, Rockaway Cabernet Sauvignon, Alexander Valley 2006 ($75/sample) — A blend of 97% Cabernet Sauvignon, 2% Malbec, and 1% Petit Verdot. Very dark purple in color, the wine shows the same refined aromatics from the previous vintage. Black cherry, dark currant, green olive, sage, fennel and vanilla return with some cigar box added for good measure. In the mouth the wine is very firm and focused even after more than 2 hours in a decanter with blackberry and black-currant fruit flavors along with black pepper and dark chocolate. The finish is long with very firm tannins at this point but worked as a very nice companion to the slightly fatty roast beef last night.
To be released in February 2010, I would recommend at least 5 years of aging before opening your first bottle. At this point, 3+ hours in the decanter is required to fully enjoy this wine but it is clear this will be one of the best California Cabs to collect based upon the first two vintages.
15.4% ABV
Natural cork closure
Score: 96
Rating: 
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by Tim Elliott on January 1, 2010
Although some folks don’t care for such prognostication, I posted six predictions 365 days ago for 2009. Before I post a new set for 2010, I thought I would revisit this post and see how close I came to foretelling what might happen last year in the wine world:
The Year of Value – It didn’t take a rocket scientist to predict consumers would look for the best wine values in 2009. The final statistics will not be out for a few days but from what I’ve seen recently, wine sales actually increased in the U.S. and Canada in 2009 but wines above $35 a bottle were flat to slightly down over 2008. The entire market traded down in 2009; it will be interesting to see what happens as the economy improves.
Wineries Really Go Direct - One of the industry trends that I closely track is adoption of social media. As smaller wineries come to grips with the reality that distributors are no longer the best place to sell their wines, they will look to new ways to connect directly with customers. We saw a lot of activity in this area in 2009 with wineries big and small adopted social marketing in a big way. I fully expect to see a lot more activity this year as wineries of all sizes expand their direct-to-consumer sales efforts.
Alternative Packaging – I’ve noticed a large increase in the amount of alternative closures in the past year with a sharp rise in the amount of screwcaps but also quite a few plastic corks being used. But this was really not part of this prediction so I guess I have to call this one a fail. Or perhaps this prediction is just a bit ahead of the curve.
Wine 2.0 Will Produce A Star – Another miss as no one really emerged from the Wine 2.0 pack. But I still think we will see a winner here in the next 12 months as Cork’d gets serious, CellarTracker gets a much needed user interface update and Snooth continues to grow.
Wine Media Goes Digital – I have to say that I’m surprised there wasn’t at least one wine magazine making more than just evolutionary moves online. Both Wine Spectator and Wine Advocate improved their online offerings in the year but no one really did anything very dramatic. A pity as 2010 looks to be the year of the tablet (or at least, the eBook reader). Time was lost and it will show by the end of this year.
Americans Drink Less Wine At Lower Price Points – As I mentioned on my first prediction, wine sales appear to be up over 2008 but at lower prices. So I’ll count this one as half right.
So 2 1/2 out of 6 or about 42% right. I guess I’m improving over my earlier efforts but still not a very reliable predictor of the future. If I didn’t have 5 really good predictions already written up, I just might just give this up… no, probably not, as it’s still too much fun for me.
Happy New Year!
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